In predicting the outcome of history, the destiny of a state plays a significant role in how that state will marshal it resources and organize its population. We can take a look at the classic example of the Roman Empire. Within the Roman society was a belief in the destiny or the city-state of Rome. This destiny was so endemic to Rome that the organization of political and military resources was centered on the idea of Roman expansion. In the post Renaissance age, different states formed around differing destinies. We can trace the expansion of empires throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and with an eye to that underlying "destiny" of that state, and predict at least what the state would attempt to do. I wonder if we could understand that vision of each state as to its direction, would we be able to better predict outcomes?

"Destiny of the state" seems to be somewhat fatalistic idea, rather than an exercise in determinism. It is true that to an extent, the fate of a nation is deterministically related to the mentality which the public which forms the state affords on itself. However, it cannot be said that the destiny of the state is determined by this alone.There are other factors like resource availability, resource utilization, policies of use of resources, social practices which influence certain modes of thought which are socially beneficial, and more.

Your point is well stated. I agree that resources are very important in modeling how a state performs. We can see this in extreme cases where resources are an "extreme" limitation in societies, especially in very harsh environments. We would not expect a powerful state to natively arise from Bedouin or Inuit societies. There are some pesky exceptions to a simple resource view. For example take the British and Japanese empires both based on the resource limitations of an island. In both cases the island nation becomes a world level empire. In this context, island resources are very limiting. It becomes a problem of acquiring resources rather than having intrinic resources. Acquiring resources becomes a practice of managment, trade, and domination. All of these are qualities of the "mentality" you speak of. Policies are also a product of the "human mind." Where does the concept of destiny come in? Destiny is a human belief that directs the expectations, actions, and policies of the state. If a state has a destiny of becoming an empire (unlerlying specifics aside), this state organizes for fullfillment of this destiny. So when I say a state destiny, I mean the very beliefs that are the keystone of the state. Does every state with a destiny actually fulfill that destiny? The answer of course is no. As a qualitative view of beliefs, not all beliefs are created equally. In a state on state competition, the victor is the state with the best ability to fulfill destiny. In competition of states, the ability to organize, manage, and dominate are all necessary for success. All states are based upon beliefs, a destiny or ‘purpose’ being simply one of those beliefs. I hope that I did not give you the impression of fatalism in this. Many of the policies of modern states are very good things for their citizens. The idea of a republic is based upon personal rights and consent of the governed which I think most of us are happy with.

Interesting points, mrkoconnell. It is rather tempting to get into definitions of several words we use frequently in this contect. It is probably better to adopt a mathematical framework which can become ubiquitous in time. The models themselves will become more refined as time progresses, as our definitions become clearer when we compare what is to the results of the model. Resource management can be simulated using resource pools, revenue generators, capital generators, social transactions and interactions, and possibly markets.

I would really like to know the how and where to apply mathematical models in Psychohistory. I know that Asimov referenced this in "Foundation" but I just haven't figured out where this can be applied in the real world. I was contemplating models for years until I finally had to give up the mathematical approach as mostly fictional. It is not for lack of training on my part. I have degrees in both engineering and social science; I just don't know where to use math in this case. I have completely changed everything to a model based on software engineering, and so far this seems to be working form me.