Though it is difficult to predict <b><i>THE</i></b> future, I think it might be possible to predict segments that make up the whole. Take for example, the collapse of the Soviet Union. Perhaps this could have been predicted if we examined the forces that sustained communism, ie., distribution of wealth. Another area that might be interesting to predict is how the Open Source movement will fare against proprietary coporate titans like Microsoft and Sun.

I think psychohistory (as described by Asimov) would be possible, and it could "predict" or estimate historical trends, like comunism collaps for example.
But i also that theory could take some time to be developed, and a big scientific effort to join mathematical and antropological knowledge at a sustainable and reasonable basis.

Have you been interested in Psychohistory for a while or have you just discovered it? I think that it is a fascinating subject and I thank Asimov for planting such an idea in our minds

I was wondering if you had any pet theories or if we could get a general discussion going re: cause and effect of situations such as wars, strong nations, economic prosperity/decline and other kinds of trends. Obviously there are many factors involved, but I think it is best to start with a theoretical model and then add complexity to it as the maths or systems adapt and get discovered.

Please share your thoughts...

Greg

if the future could be predict that could not be whith the only psychohistory cause mathematics are too rigid and history, in book's or on media are just a part of the real history(what really happends) cause don't forget that information is always,and since the last time ever, truncate. So you need some other view to predict the future ,a certain sort of future like asimov says robability ,like the quantics math. Finally i think that intuition and documentation use toghether will stay the best system. Don't forget that history never repeat the same things. sorry for my english but i am french and were not a very good english student, so sorry. florian.tixador@worldonline.fr

quantum computers could probably do it
mind you

While some might say that history, either individual or collective, is not able to be defined by something so 'rigid' as mathematics, I would point out that not all mathematics are rigid. Some are very flexible. (no I'm not talking about George W.'s 'fuzzy math') Take for example a calculus derivative. Say the derivative of 1/x as x approaches zero... the result is infinity, if you can deal with infinity as a variable... meaning that if you can, you CAN divide anything by zero, getting infinity. (had a few arguments with my prof over that one) what I mean to point out is that when something looks impossible, it's only that you're not getting to it from the right angle.. In Asimov's Psychohistory, individuals' actions are supposedly not predictable, while the actions of large groups are, in the same fashion of a derivative going from complexity to total simplicity... however, this is based on the ASSUMPTION that 'free will' is mandatory, and that, I believe, is an error. How many people, every second of every hour of every day do something totally spontaneous? Never. Nobody can be spontaneous ALL the time. Everyone usually acts from unconscious impulses, weighing variables in their minds until an action is decided upon... this is true for everyone. As if we are all actors playing characters in a story and we are all just being 'in-character' all the time. This can be predicted, mapped, and with a computer complex enough, accounted for in its totality. The deciding factor, which can not be predicted, is TRUE spontenaity (sp.?) which is like the infinity variable in the above example.. you can't say WHAT it is, but you can put it into the equation as a placeholder and calculate AROUND it... furthermore, I think Asimov's statement that individuals cannot be predicted is bunk for that reason... the only reason he put that element into his stories was to make them more acceptable... most people think the idea of free will being an illusion as pretty scarey.

Pardon me if any portion of my post doesn't make sense, my translation circuit is perhaps a bit off. Oh and please fix the main page of this site, it's not 'HARRI' Seldon, it'sa 'Hari'!! one R. Can't stand misspellings. thank you.

Eltanan@advnet.net

Or in other words, Psychohistory.
This is for Florian: Let us arrange to express ourselves in our native language and find volunteers to translate. If you would like I will volunteer to translate your French into English.

With regard to the responses we have to the initital question:
Each of us should make an effort to stay "on-topic" more. Do not wander, as I have done with this posting, onto new areas.
Better to start a new thread.

Also, we need to get to the site's management & request they find a software package that will display the thread above the posting window so specifics can be addressed in a more orderly way. Who can remember well enough to comemnt on everything in this thread, for example.

As a beginning, it should be possible to post a response to each separate response posted, once a thread is initiated.

I doubt the "elves" will notice the above suggestion so if someone could start a thread addressing how to contact the site's management, I'd appreciate it.

I will explore this myself once I have some time.