@mrkoconnell

The System of Systems approach is definitely very novel and interesting. My knowledge about this is limited to the Wikipedia page, but I have to say that even here, there is the question of "system abstraction". Systems need to be clearly defined for any of their interactions to be understood, and the inputs and outputs arising from one system and the nature of their net transfer functions should be assessed. Once system abstraction is defined, it would be easier for us to have some degree of confidence in our assessments.

As for the question on whether one man's actions can be ignored - they cannot. Contingency planning and mathematical models for sch planning can take care of one aspect of our efforts in controlling the future. However, for reaching higher successes, one needs to go further than contingency planning and infuse determinism into the human race.

I am fascinated by transhumanism, especially after reading Ray Kurzweil's essays on artificial intelligence. I happen to think that transhumanism, especially human-computer interactivity, can afford us this determinism to a greater extent, unless ground breaking research in the study of the human mind happens before the time we formulate these models.

I am not qualified to comment on the existing state of the predictive models either, but am eager to learn about them if anyone has relevant information.

Cheers
Fulcrum